€0.08. That’s the entire move in the EU CBAM certificate price between Q1 and Q2 2026 – from €75.36 down to €75.28. On paper, it’s about as flat as a quarterly number gets.
But that tiny figure is hiding something importers can’t afford to ignore: the carbon market behind it swung by roughly €30 per tonne within the same window. Treat €0.08 as “stable,” and you’re not reading the number – you’re reading past it.
What happened to CBAM certificate prices this quarter
The European Commission calculates the CBAM certificate price each quarter as the volume-weighted average of EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) auction prices. For Q1 2026, that average landed at €75.36 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. For Q2, it came in at €75.28 – a move of less than one-tenth of a euro.
Here’s the part the headline number hides: the underlying EU ETS carbon price was anything but flat during that window. In the same period covering Q1, allowance prices climbed above €90 per tonne in January before dropping to the low €60s by mid-March on policy uncertainty ahead of ETS reform. That’s a swing of roughly €30 per tonne inside a single quarter – the quarterly average simply smoothed it out.
In other words: the number on your compliance dashboard is calm. The market that number is drawn from was not.
Why CBAM certificate prices can be misleading
If you’re forecasting landed costs, budgeting for 2027 certificate purchases, or negotiating supplier contracts based on the assumption that CBAM costs move slowly and predictably, the Q1–Q2 comparison should give you pause for these reasons:
- From 2027, prices move weekly, not quarterly. The Commission has confirmed that CBAM certificate pricing shifts to a weekly calculation from 2027 onward. The averaging effect that made Q1 and Q2 look similar disappears – cost exposure becomes far more sensitive to short-term market movement, and far less forgiving of “we’ll figure it out at quarter-end” planning.
- Certificate price is only half the equation. Your actual liability depends on verified embedded emissions data from your suppliers. Businesses relying on default emissions values – rather than actual, verified supplier data – can face significantly inflated certificate requirements regardless of what the per-tonne price does. A calm price environment doesn’t protect you from a data problem.
Who is affected by the CBAM certificate
CBAM currently covers five goods categories, plus electricity:
- Iron & steel
- Aluminium
- Cement
- Fertiliser
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
If your business imports any of these into the EU above the reporting thresholds, quarterly (soon weekly) certificate pricing is now a real line item in your cost of goods, not a future compliance formality.
What “staying ready” actually looks like
Reacting to price swings after they happen isn’t a strategy -by the time a quarterly price is published, the imports it applies to have often already landed. The practical steps that hold up regardless of where the price moves next:
- Get verified data from suppliers, When available, not defaults. Actual emissions data typically produces a lower and more accurate liability than the Commission’s conservative default values.
- Track exposure by quarter, not by year. Know roughly what volume you’re importing within each pricing window so a bad quarter doesn’t blindside your finance team.
- Build price flexibility into forecasts. Given that the underlying EU ETS market moved by roughly €30/tonne within a single quarter, a single-point price assumption in your budget is a risk, not a plan.
- Keep your CBAM registry and supplier documentation audit-ready. Verification increasingly involves scrutiny of actual site data, not paperwork alone.
CBAM certificate FAQs
Did CBAM certificate prices go up or down in Q2 2026?
They went down slightly, from €75.36 in Q1 2026 to €75.28 in Q2 2026 – a decrease of €0.08 per tonne of CO2 equivalent.
Why did the price change so little if carbon markets were volatile?
Because the 2026 CBAM price is a quarterly volume-weighted average of EU ETS auction prices. Big swings within the quarter can cancel each other out in the average, even though the actual cost of the goods you imported that quarter may have been priced very differently depending on exactly when they entered the EU.
When will CBAM prices become more responsive to daily market changes?
From 2027, the European Commission moves to weekly CBAM certificate pricing, replacing the 2026 quarterly system.
What’s the biggest risk for importers right now?
Relying on default emissions values instead of verified supplier data and treating a flat quarterly average as evidence that carbon costs are predictable.
For more FAQs on CBAM , Explore : CBAM Communication and FAQs – Taxation and Customs Union
Get ahead of the next CBAM certificate pricing update
A quiet quarter on paper doesn’t mean stable costs in practice – and the next pricing shift (quarterly to weekly) will make that gap even more important to manage. Allied CBAM helps importers get their emissions data accurate, their supplier information clean, and their cost forecasting flexible enough to handle whatever the next quarter brings.
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